Aston Villa look absolutely doomed. If 40 points is the magic figure the they still need 34. An almost impossible target for what looks like a very poor team. Experience at the back in Guzan, Lescott and Richards hasn't shored up the defence. The midfield is too lightweight and there's nowhere near enough goals in the team.
My team Sunderland also look in trouble. Their Christmas fixtures are really tough and they'll go into the new year looking for something like 1.5 points per game. Big Sam has been there and done it all before but this one looks tough. He keeps saying that there's goals in this team, and it agree, but conceding like they did against Watford will put them onthe back foot too often. They may just escape on the back of Watmore and Defoe.
Norwich got a draw against in-form Everton but they look a poor team. I can't see them picking up enough points to survive.
I really like the way Bournemouth play their football. Losing key players to big injuries would set anyone back but they've just kept playing their football. Pace frightens defenders and they've given Chelsea and Manchester United a beating in consecutive games. I think they'll stay up and I hope they'll stay up.
Newcastle United have had more false dawns than any other club on this list. Back to back wins don't guarantee that a corner has been turned but the outlook is better than a week ago. Goals will be their problem but they may have enough to survive.
Swansea have been dragged into it by virtue of their awful recent form. The key to their survival may be the new manager. I can't see anyone currently out of a job that is prime candidate. Gus Poyet is the bookies favourite but I've seen first hand what he can do to a team - the good and the bad.
My bottom three will be Aston Villa, Norwich City and Swansea. Watch this space.
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