The league title race hots up - will we have a new Premier League winner this season?

Has the league title fight now come down to two teams? With another disappointing two round of fixtures for Arsenal and Manchester City - one on the league and one in the Champions League - there is a growing feeling that only Leicester City and Tottenham Hotspur can win the Barclays Premier League now this season.

Manchester City have progressed in Europe but the loss of Vincent Kompany to injury again raises fears that their title push is over. Without their captain they have struggled at the back and they are now relying on defenders that haven't cut the mustard in their time in the country. It looks like the clubs hierarchy are looking at next season and the arrival of Pep Guardiola for their next set of glory. A Champions League quarter final for the first time is nothing to be sniffed at but City don't look like potential winners of that tournament. Only a major collapse by both the top two will let them back into the Premier League title race.

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Arsenal have some big problems of their own. The calls for the head of the manager Arsene Wenger grow louder every day and their exit from the Champions League, the FA Cup and their recent failures in the league are not going to make any of this go away. The recent falling away of Manchester United after the long reign of Sir Alex Ferguson may persuade the board to keep hold of him for a little while longer but the results on the pitch are not what the fans want to see.

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Leicester City did on Monday night what all the big clubs have always managed to do - win even when not playing well. It is a sign of champions but the last few weeks of the season will see them becoming more and more nervous as they near the impossible dream. They still have away games to Manchester United and Chelsea so the season is far from over.

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Tottenham Hotspur have been also-rans for a long time. They play football which is tough on their players because of the amount of running they are required to do. This may come back to haunt them later in the season as the players tire. Is the squad big enough? DO they have strength in depth? What about cover for injuries?

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Choose any 3 from 4 in the relegation battle

After the weekend fixtures it now looks like relegation from the Premier League will be three team from the current bottom four. Swansea had a great win away to Arsenal in midweek. Bournemouth won comfortably away to Newcastle on Saturday so the bottom four are now sit in a group 8 points adrift of the rest of the table, smooth looks nigh on impossible to catch the rest up with only 9 games left for most of the table.

So who will go down?

Aston Villa

This has been the season that has finally caught up with the Randy Lerner administration of Villa. There has been chronic underinvestment in the club for years and the manager Remi Garde looks to have been brought in to work in the Championship rather than the Premier League.

They have been poor all season from front to back. They don't score enough goals and leak far too many. It also looks like many of the team have given up.

Finish = 20th

Norwich City

They started with a lot of character but in a similar manner to Burnley last year they just don't have enough quality. Goals have been a real problem and with Cameron Jerome leading the line they don't have the firepower to remedy this.

Their home form isn't good enough to suggest that they can find enough points to survive.

Finish = 19th

The North East teams

The derby between Newcastle and Sunderland on in two weeks time is huge. If Leicester beat Newcastle next Monday then a win for Sunderland in the derby would give them a 4 point lead over their rivals - this would be a massive gap at this stage of the season. But a win for Newcastle would restore some confidence and keep the battle going for a few weeks more.

Newcastle look leaderless both on and off the pitch. Steve McClaren has proven himself as a great coach but has failed more often than not as a manager. Mile Ashley disappears when the going gets tough and this time is no exception to that.

Any team that has to rely on Coloccini and Steven Taylor in defence will struggle.

Sunderland have shown more promise recently but don't seem to be able to convert good performances into points. They don't keep clean sheets and really seem to be incapable of putting chances in the back of the net.

Newcastle finish = 18th

Sunderland finish = 17th

Is this now Leicester's title? See the three matches that will decide it.

Could this have been the weekend that changed the title chance in favour of Leicester City. I blogged previously to say that I didn't think Leicester could even finish in the tip four. Those doubts have gone and they have been installed as favourites for the title with some bookmakers. This is a remarkable turnaround for a team that was fighting against relegation at the end of last season.


Much has been written about their star players such as Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez. The manager Claudio Ranieri has also been in the spotlight.







In my blog today I am going to look at the three key games that they gave between now and the end of the season. There are thirteen games left as we stand. All will be "cup finals" for them, but three stand out-


Sunday 14th February - away to Arsenal
In the week after Leicester have notched wins against Liverpool and Manchester City, they face a third massive challenge in three games. If they beat Arsenal and Spurs draw with Man City in the other massive game this weekend then Leicester could finish the week 7 points clear at the top. If Leicester lose and Spurs win then the gap will be only 2 points. Without looking at the opposition you can see what a big game this is. I would say that Leicester have to make sure they don't lose. But they don't seem to play the game that way. I think that Mahrez and Vardy will be going all out to beat the Gunners.


Saturday 30th April - away to Manchester United
It's not that there won;'t be any crucial games in between Arsenal and Man United, it's just that this game could be when Leicester are looking to tie up the league title. If results go as expected then Leicester could be needing a win at Old Trafford to win the league with 2 games to spare. I suspect that by this time we will already know whether United are in the Champions League foe next season ans whether Louis Van Gaal will be be the manager.









After destroying Man U 5-3- last season I would expect that this is another game when Leicester attempt to set Vardy free to torture the opposition.


Sunday 15th May - away to Chelsea
Yes, I've picked 3 away games as those that will decide the fate of Leicester because this will be where they possibly drop some points. To be crowned as champions at the home of the outgoing champions would be a fantastic achievement. The home form of Chelsea this season has been really patchy, so if Leicester come here needing to win I wouldn't back against them. It could be the last game for Guus Hiddink and for John Terry though, so it may not be as easy as they would like.

If you want in-depth analysis of football but in an easy-to-read format - look no further than Sporticos

In Off The Post likes to look at the beautiful game of football from all angles. This edition introduced you to a fantastic website that gives you the lowdown on the facts and figures involved with football.

What is football if it's not facts and figures? We see stats and analysis attached to every game nowadays, from the World Cup to the FA Cup, from the Premier League to League 2. It's one of the reasons why the game translates so well to fantasy football - you can dissect it, analyse it, put it into graphs and charts and see what comes out of the other side.

If you're like me and you just love to look at the factual and statistical analysis of football then you can't go far wrong with https://sporticos.com

It's perfect if you want to look at the game from all angles (which after all is the In Off The Post motto) but don't really have the time to do all the analysis yourself. Sporticos looks at a match at a time by breaking down the opposing teams statistics. It then represents these stats in easy to understand infographics. It is then easy (and fun) to look at the facts and figures relating to any given match.

It is a positive aspect of the FIFA-isation of football that you can take a brief look at the match-up between two teams and immediately understand how their form and players can and will affect the game that is about to be played. My children love the easy access it gives them to-

•          Predicted score
•          Probability of win, lose or draw
•          Key players
•          Top scorers
•          League standings
•          Goals per game (both scored and conceded)
•          As well as information about the stadium and the likely weather conditions

As someone who likes the occasional bet, I’m sure that I will use Sporticos to check out the form of the teams involved, as well as some of the statistics, particularly relating to predicted score and probability of result. I like to take a look at patterns when I’m betting and try to make a bet that I’m 80% sure about rather than taking a punt on a long shot. This website gives you the ability to do that because you can just take a look at the matches you may be considering and check out the infographics. You can start to work out the form and probabilities at a glance. Who else makes it this easy? Certainly no other website that I’ve ever seen.

Sporticos prides itself in being “a source for all essential information about football every fan would ever need.” I totally agree with this statement. It covers every league under the sun that you would or could want to know about. From the A-League in Australia to the Ykkonen in Finland; from the Indian Super League to the Major Soccer League in the USA. If there are facts and figures to be gathered and turned into easily-digestible graphics then Sporticos have been there and done the leg work for you.

I just love the way that In Off The Post gives me the opportunity to look at so many different aspects of football , including things that I may have missed through my everyday life and hopefully things that interest you – my readers.

https://sporticos.com is a great website that gives you all the information you may need but it doesn’t feel like you are wading through pages and pages of data. It is information for the information age made easy. There is so much to like about this website. I urge you to take a good look at it.

See why this could be the costliest transfer window yet

The transfer window has opened again and I expect there to be a flurry of signings. It's a massive season for staying in the Premier League - the new television deal next year ramps up the income levels again. There are things at the top and the bottom of the league at play this season that will affect who spends, and how much they spend.

Top of the league

It's all up for grabs. Not just the title, but the Champions League places, that could go to any of a number of clubs. Even Chelsea will fancy putting on a great run and snatching a European place this season. I think that the title could still be won by Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, Leicester City or Tottenham Hotspur. This means that all of these teams could invest in their squad. Louis van Gaal has said he needs a striker, Spurs need backup for Harry Kane, Leicester will look for quality and Man City can always spend big. There's plenty of legs in the title race and while that's a possibility, teams will try to influence it with their chequebooks.

European places
It's not over for the likes of Liverpool, Everton or even Chelsea, so there's European football to play for right down to the bottom third of the league. The Europa League had been a bit of a poisoned chalice in recent seasons but I think that Tottenham this year have shown it doesn't have to be. Teams will always prefer the Champions League but the Europa League can be a money-spinner, a chance to use the squad and an opportunity to blood youngsters. Teams will spend to get there, but not excessively.

Relegation
The relegation battle will be the fiercest ever, with the money at stake. Consequently the money spend will hit a new high, in my opinion. The following teams could still go down


Aston Villa
Sunderland
Newcastle United
Norwich City
Swansea City
Bournemouth
And even Chelsea

The activity could be intense because all of these teams have some major flaws that need to be addressed. Sunderland need a new defence (and Newcastle need help in this area too) whilst Bournemouth have lost some of their major attacking players to long-term injuries. You have to speculate to accumulate.

See my take on whether Leicester City will make the top 4 this season

After most of the matches have been played this weekend, there's a question that everyone has been asking.

Will Leicester make the top four at the end of the season?

I heard Paul Merson ask it on Gillette Soccer Saturday, Jermain Jenas ask it on Match Of The Day and Martin Keown on MOTD2.

My answer really differs to most of what I've  heard recently. I don't think that they can keep this up. Just watching the intensity of their game against Everton and the amount of fight they had to put in, means for me that they will run out of steam.

An injury or two, a suspension or a player needing a test will put a bigger dent in their squad than any of their rivals. They don't have proven internationals on the bench or young starlets coming through the under-21 league. This means that they will struggle for quality if they hit a bad patch. It currently looks like Leicester will be competing with Manchester City, Arsenal, Spurs and Manchester United for a Champions League spot and all their squads run deeper.

Leicester could have some aces up their sleeves in the January transfer window, though and new signings will be easier to come by than last January when they were bottom of the league. But the pressure will be on Claudio Ranieri to make improvements without breaking the team spirit they have developed.

Whatever happens, it will be an interesting season. Keep watching and keep reading!

Twists and turns at the bottom of the table this week - who will go down?

There were some interesting twists and turns at the bottom end of the Premier League this weekend. With Manchester City and Arsenal (and possibly Leicester City tonight) swapping the lead there seems to be more definitive action in the relegation battle. Let's have a look at how the teams fighting relegation are looking going into the Christmas period-

Aston Villa look absolutely doomed. If 40 points is the magic figure the they still need 34. An almost impossible target for what looks like a very poor team. Experience at the back in Guzan, Lescott and Richards hasn't shored up the defence. The midfield is too lightweight and there's nowhere near enough goals in the team.

My team Sunderland also look in trouble. Their Christmas fixtures are really tough and they'll go into the new year looking for something like 1.5 points per game. Big Sam has been there and done it all before but this one looks tough. He keeps saying that there's goals in this team, and it agree, but conceding like they did against Watford will put them onthe back foot too often. They may just escape on the back of Watmore and Defoe.

Norwich got a draw against in-form Everton but they look a poor team. I can't see them picking up enough points to survive.

I really like the way Bournemouth play their football. Losing key players to big injuries would set anyone back but they've just kept playing their football. Pace frightens defenders and they've given Chelsea and Manchester United a beating in consecutive games. I think they'll stay up and I hope they'll stay up.

Newcastle United have had more false dawns than any other club on this list. Back to back wins don't guarantee that a corner has been turned but the outlook is better than a week ago. Goals will be their problem but they may have enough to survive.

Swansea have been dragged into it by virtue of their awful recent form. The key to their survival may be the new manager. I can't see anyone currently out of a job that is prime candidate. Gus Poyet is the bookies favourite but I've seen first hand what he can do to a team - the good and the bad.

My bottom three will be Aston Villa, Norwich City and Swansea. Watch this space.

See the lowdown on why the Premier League is wide open this season

It feels as though nobody really wants to win the league this year. There's no stand out team that is taking it by the scruff of the neck like Chelsea did last season. With Manchester City losing at the weekend, Chelsea continuing their poor form and Manchester United struggling for goals it came to Leicester City and Arsenal to pick up wins and make their move.

So why are the big teams not firing so far?

Let's have a look-

Man City have suffered more injuries than usual this season. Losing Vincent Kompany, Yaya Toure and Sergio Aguero for long spells would harm any team in the world. They've list their captain, their midfield driving force and a large percentage of their goals. Kevin De Bruyne in his first proper Premier League season and a still-young Raheem Sterling can't seem to turn the tide on their own.

Louis Van Gaal has changed the philosophy at Man United. After a season in the doldrums under David Moyes, he probably felt he needed to turn the tide in some way. This way has been to spend (really, really) big and produce a team that keeps clean sheets as their main aim. From there, they hope that Rooney's will, Martial's pace or Mata's guile gets them a goal. It's quite dour to watch but the board thinks it's a great alternative to the Moyes reign.

What can I possible say about Chelsea? They have been awful and Jose Mourinho has not been the great manager we have been led to believe he is. Man management has never looked his strong point and it feels like he has lost the dressing room. A Champions eague exit this week will all but seal his fate. I suspect that Abramovic wants to keep him on but time is definitely running out.

The last of the traditional big four is Arsenal and they have suffered injuries on a similar scale to Man City. They have lost key players at key times but still keep up second place at the moment. The magic of Ozil will have to make do on it's own as Sanchez what looks like a hamstring injury which could keep him out of the side for a while.

The revelation so far have been Leicester City and they currently top the table. Nobody expects them to keep it up but if the other teams mentioned above continue with their problems then Leicester have a chance. In the January transfer window will be much easier to attract players than this time last year when they were in real trouble. With a couple of quality acquisitions they could have a chance of lasting the distance and from there who knows?

My tip for the title as it stands now is Manchester City. I just think that they can't continue to be this unlucky with injuries and they could go out and buy a £50 million player in January if they felt it necessary.

El Clasico clashes with Manchester City v Liverpool - who will win out?

As El Classico clashes with the Man City v Liverpool match on Sky Sports tonight, I think it's time to ask whether the global game has taken over the Premier League.

What will you watch?

Real Madrid v Barcelona?

Man City v Liverpool?

Or take the option with Sky to watch it split screen? Is like to see a breakdown on the viewing figures.

When I was young, teams from outside of England, Scotland and Wales seemed a million miles away. Players with exotic-sounding names from different pockets of the globe has their own thing going on.

When Steve Archibald went to Barcelona, my world changed a little. He was the first top player in my memory that had made such a switch. It looked like a massive adventure that bordered on madness. Likewise for overseas players coming to the English league. Ossie Ardiles was my first memory of a player coming in the opposite direction.

Now the Premier League is awash with great players from as far and wide as Senegal, New Zealand, USA, Chile and a plethora of Spaniards, French and Dutch. There has been much lament of how this affects the England national team. But it's not the relative lack of success of the England team that worries me in this blog. It's a problem that is typified by the matches I mentioned at the top of the blog. The Premier League bills itself at different times as-

"The best league in the world"

"The most competitive league in the world"

"The most exciting league in the world"

And these have always been selling points as the league sells itself over the world for TV money. And as the Premier League loses it's standing against the big matches from other leagues and potentially losing their 4th Champions League place-

http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/10005194/premier-leagues-fourth-champions-league-spot-under-threat-from-serie-a

The Premier League has grown on the back of the massive TV deal after massive TV deal and they don't expect it to stop anytime soon. But if Sky find that more people tune in for El Clasico than a top Premier League clash then they may not pay quite so much in their next deal. Broadcasters from other countries could follow suit and this will mean that the power of the Premier League wanes.

I can see this being more of a big deal for the Premier League power brokers than any loss of status for the England team.

After 12 games of the season it's my part-season progress report

When Arsenal v Tottenham and Liverpool v Crystal Palace finish their games today, we will be at the 12-game mark in this season's Premier League. The international break is next so it's a good time to look at where things are and what might transpire between now and the end of the current campaign. The league table looks like this-

Premier League

Pos.	Team	P	GD	Pts.
1No movement	Man City	12	17	26
2No movement	Arsenal	11	13	25
3No movement	Leicester	12	5	25
4No movement	Man Utd	12	9	24
5No movement	West Ham	12	7	21
6No movement	Tottenham	11	10	20
7No movement	Southampton	12	6	20
8No movement	Everton	12	4	17
9No movement	Liverpool	11	0	17
10No movement	Crystal Palace	11	1	16
11No movement	Watford	12	-1	16
12No movement	Stoke	12	-2	16
13No movement	West Brom	12	-6	14
14No movement	Swansea	12	-4	13
15No movement	Norwich	12	-7	12
16No movement	Chelsea	12	-7	11
17No movement	Newcastle	12	-9	10
18No movement	Bournemouth	12	-13	8
19No movement	Sunderland	12	-13	6
20No movement	Aston Villa	12	-10	5

I'll start here with my awards for so far this season and my predictions for the end of the season.

Over achievers 

This is a close-run thing but I think that by virtue of having four more points, I'll give this to Leicester City over West Ham United. Mahrez and Vardy in particular have been great going forward but the thing that has put Leicester in their lofty position is their spirit. They just don't know when they are beaten.

Under achievers

This isn't a close-run thing at all. To go from comfortable champions to 16th place is terrible. It's never happened before. I put the blame squarely at the manager's feet. He has undermined the staff, upset the players, blamed everyone except for himself and disrupted a team that looked so unified last season.

Player of the (part) season

The exploits of Jamie Vardy have been remarkable but the stand-out player in the matches I've watched has been Dimitri Payet. His skill, running and vision have been a delight to watch and have transformed West Ham from average to very good.

Relegation candidates

I said at the start of the season that I thought Sunderland, Newcastle and Aston Villa would be relegated. I stand by two of these but I think that Newcastle United have shown enough progress under Steve McClaren to survive. Bournemouth have has a rotten run of injuries and I think that losing Callum Wilson is a blow they can't recover from.

Champions (and Champuons League)

I think that there many be a new face in next season's Champions League as I think Spurs can make the top four this year. In my opinion they will be joined by the two Manchester clubs and Arsenal. I think that Chelsea have left themselves too much to do, even at this relatively early stage. My tip for champions is Manchester City again, but I think that Arsenal and Manchester United will run them close and make it a fight right up until the last couple of fixtures. Sergio Aguero remaining fit will be the deciding factor as neither of the other clubs have a goalscorer that can compete with him.

Let's see how things go!