Choose any 3 from 4 in the relegation battle

After the weekend fixtures it now looks like relegation from the Premier League will be three team from the current bottom four. Swansea had a great win away to Arsenal in midweek. Bournemouth won comfortably away to Newcastle on Saturday so the bottom four are now sit in a group 8 points adrift of the rest of the table, smooth looks nigh on impossible to catch the rest up with only 9 games left for most of the table.

So who will go down?

Aston Villa

This has been the season that has finally caught up with the Randy Lerner administration of Villa. There has been chronic underinvestment in the club for years and the manager Remi Garde looks to have been brought in to work in the Championship rather than the Premier League.

They have been poor all season from front to back. They don't score enough goals and leak far too many. It also looks like many of the team have given up.

Finish = 20th

Norwich City

They started with a lot of character but in a similar manner to Burnley last year they just don't have enough quality. Goals have been a real problem and with Cameron Jerome leading the line they don't have the firepower to remedy this.

Their home form isn't good enough to suggest that they can find enough points to survive.

Finish = 19th

The North East teams

The derby between Newcastle and Sunderland on in two weeks time is huge. If Leicester beat Newcastle next Monday then a win for Sunderland in the derby would give them a 4 point lead over their rivals - this would be a massive gap at this stage of the season. But a win for Newcastle would restore some confidence and keep the battle going for a few weeks more.

Newcastle look leaderless both on and off the pitch. Steve McClaren has proven himself as a great coach but has failed more often than not as a manager. Mile Ashley disappears when the going gets tough and this time is no exception to that.

Any team that has to rely on Coloccini and Steven Taylor in defence will struggle.

Sunderland have shown more promise recently but don't seem to be able to convert good performances into points. They don't keep clean sheets and really seem to be incapable of putting chances in the back of the net.

Newcastle finish = 18th

Sunderland finish = 17th

Twists and turns at the bottom of the table this week - who will go down?

There were some interesting twists and turns at the bottom end of the Premier League this weekend. With Manchester City and Arsenal (and possibly Leicester City tonight) swapping the lead there seems to be more definitive action in the relegation battle. Let's have a look at how the teams fighting relegation are looking going into the Christmas period-

Aston Villa look absolutely doomed. If 40 points is the magic figure the they still need 34. An almost impossible target for what looks like a very poor team. Experience at the back in Guzan, Lescott and Richards hasn't shored up the defence. The midfield is too lightweight and there's nowhere near enough goals in the team.

My team Sunderland also look in trouble. Their Christmas fixtures are really tough and they'll go into the new year looking for something like 1.5 points per game. Big Sam has been there and done it all before but this one looks tough. He keeps saying that there's goals in this team, and it agree, but conceding like they did against Watford will put them onthe back foot too often. They may just escape on the back of Watmore and Defoe.

Norwich got a draw against in-form Everton but they look a poor team. I can't see them picking up enough points to survive.

I really like the way Bournemouth play their football. Losing key players to big injuries would set anyone back but they've just kept playing their football. Pace frightens defenders and they've given Chelsea and Manchester United a beating in consecutive games. I think they'll stay up and I hope they'll stay up.

Newcastle United have had more false dawns than any other club on this list. Back to back wins don't guarantee that a corner has been turned but the outlook is better than a week ago. Goals will be their problem but they may have enough to survive.

Swansea have been dragged into it by virtue of their awful recent form. The key to their survival may be the new manager. I can't see anyone currently out of a job that is prime candidate. Gus Poyet is the bookies favourite but I've seen first hand what he can do to a team - the good and the bad.

My bottom three will be Aston Villa, Norwich City and Swansea. Watch this space.

After 12 games of the season it's my part-season progress report

When Arsenal v Tottenham and Liverpool v Crystal Palace finish their games today, we will be at the 12-game mark in this season's Premier League. The international break is next so it's a good time to look at where things are and what might transpire between now and the end of the current campaign. The league table looks like this-

Premier League

Pos.	Team	P	GD	Pts.
1No movement	Man City	12	17	26
2No movement	Arsenal	11	13	25
3No movement	Leicester	12	5	25
4No movement	Man Utd	12	9	24
5No movement	West Ham	12	7	21
6No movement	Tottenham	11	10	20
7No movement	Southampton	12	6	20
8No movement	Everton	12	4	17
9No movement	Liverpool	11	0	17
10No movement	Crystal Palace	11	1	16
11No movement	Watford	12	-1	16
12No movement	Stoke	12	-2	16
13No movement	West Brom	12	-6	14
14No movement	Swansea	12	-4	13
15No movement	Norwich	12	-7	12
16No movement	Chelsea	12	-7	11
17No movement	Newcastle	12	-9	10
18No movement	Bournemouth	12	-13	8
19No movement	Sunderland	12	-13	6
20No movement	Aston Villa	12	-10	5

I'll start here with my awards for so far this season and my predictions for the end of the season.

Over achievers 

This is a close-run thing but I think that by virtue of having four more points, I'll give this to Leicester City over West Ham United. Mahrez and Vardy in particular have been great going forward but the thing that has put Leicester in their lofty position is their spirit. They just don't know when they are beaten.

Under achievers

This isn't a close-run thing at all. To go from comfortable champions to 16th place is terrible. It's never happened before. I put the blame squarely at the manager's feet. He has undermined the staff, upset the players, blamed everyone except for himself and disrupted a team that looked so unified last season.

Player of the (part) season

The exploits of Jamie Vardy have been remarkable but the stand-out player in the matches I've watched has been Dimitri Payet. His skill, running and vision have been a delight to watch and have transformed West Ham from average to very good.

Relegation candidates

I said at the start of the season that I thought Sunderland, Newcastle and Aston Villa would be relegated. I stand by two of these but I think that Newcastle United have shown enough progress under Steve McClaren to survive. Bournemouth have has a rotten run of injuries and I think that losing Callum Wilson is a blow they can't recover from.

Champions (and Champuons League)

I think that there many be a new face in next season's Champions League as I think Spurs can make the top four this year. In my opinion they will be joined by the two Manchester clubs and Arsenal. I think that Chelsea have left themselves too much to do, even at this relatively early stage. My tip for champions is Manchester City again, but I think that Arsenal and Manchester United will run them close and make it a fight right up until the last couple of fixtures. Sergio Aguero remaining fit will be the deciding factor as neither of the other clubs have a goalscorer that can compete with him.

Let's see how things go!

Where have these release clauses appeared from?

Another transfer looks close to completion in the early part of next week as it's reported that Liverpool have met the release clause in Christian Benteke's contract. The clause is reported to be £32.5 million.

It's got me thinking about these release clauses and what they say about modern football.

In the example of Christian Benteke I'll have a look at what I think might have happened. Benteke was bought for £7m from Genk in August 2012 at the age of 22. Villa spent a lot of money in a player they saw as having huge potential and fitting into their style of play. The player probably saw Aston Villa as a stepping stone and either during the initial negotiations or a new contract, wanted a clause in his contract allowing this to happen. Villa wanted this to be a high figure and at the time probably thought that £32.5m for a player they bought for only £7m was probably good business. Since then, Benteke became the driving force at the club - going a long way towards keeping them up ever since signing. The club now feel quite reluctant to see one of their leaders leave, especially one so loved by their fans. So they dig their heels in and say to any suitor - "There's the release clause. If you want the player then that's what you have to pay." Liverpool are flush with the cash from selling Raheem Sterling and still haven't replaced the goals that Luis Suarez gave them. They have no choice but to pay.

I don't remember release clauses mentioned in transfer negotiations when I was a kid. But there wasn't anywhere near as much money in the game as there is nowadays.

In my eyes, the phenomenon started about ten years ago with the release clause quotes in the contracts of the players of Spanish clubs. But these don't seem to work in the same way. We're always hearing release clauses quoted of €50m to €150m but players no exchanging hands for those prices. And then there was the stand-off between Liverpool and Arsenal over the transfer of Luis Suarez. Only after Suarez had reconciled himself with Liverpool, did they reveal that there was a release clause but they decided to ignore it.

So, do they have a future in the game. I'd like to see them used in the way that Aston Villa, Christian Benteke and Liverpool have used them. Benteke gets his chance in a bigger league, Aston Villa get well rewarded for nurturing his talent and turning him into a player that the big clubs cover and Liverpool get a proven Premier League performer at a definite price.