Choose any 3 from 4 in the relegation battle

After the weekend fixtures it now looks like relegation from the Premier League will be three team from the current bottom four. Swansea had a great win away to Arsenal in midweek. Bournemouth won comfortably away to Newcastle on Saturday so the bottom four are now sit in a group 8 points adrift of the rest of the table, smooth looks nigh on impossible to catch the rest up with only 9 games left for most of the table.

So who will go down?

Aston Villa

This has been the season that has finally caught up with the Randy Lerner administration of Villa. There has been chronic underinvestment in the club for years and the manager Remi Garde looks to have been brought in to work in the Championship rather than the Premier League.

They have been poor all season from front to back. They don't score enough goals and leak far too many. It also looks like many of the team have given up.

Finish = 20th

Norwich City

They started with a lot of character but in a similar manner to Burnley last year they just don't have enough quality. Goals have been a real problem and with Cameron Jerome leading the line they don't have the firepower to remedy this.

Their home form isn't good enough to suggest that they can find enough points to survive.

Finish = 19th

The North East teams

The derby between Newcastle and Sunderland on in two weeks time is huge. If Leicester beat Newcastle next Monday then a win for Sunderland in the derby would give them a 4 point lead over their rivals - this would be a massive gap at this stage of the season. But a win for Newcastle would restore some confidence and keep the battle going for a few weeks more.

Newcastle look leaderless both on and off the pitch. Steve McClaren has proven himself as a great coach but has failed more often than not as a manager. Mile Ashley disappears when the going gets tough and this time is no exception to that.

Any team that has to rely on Coloccini and Steven Taylor in defence will struggle.

Sunderland have shown more promise recently but don't seem to be able to convert good performances into points. They don't keep clean sheets and really seem to be incapable of putting chances in the back of the net.

Newcastle finish = 18th

Sunderland finish = 17th

See why this could be the costliest transfer window yet

The transfer window has opened again and I expect there to be a flurry of signings. It's a massive season for staying in the Premier League - the new television deal next year ramps up the income levels again. There are things at the top and the bottom of the league at play this season that will affect who spends, and how much they spend.

Top of the league

It's all up for grabs. Not just the title, but the Champions League places, that could go to any of a number of clubs. Even Chelsea will fancy putting on a great run and snatching a European place this season. I think that the title could still be won by Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, Leicester City or Tottenham Hotspur. This means that all of these teams could invest in their squad. Louis van Gaal has said he needs a striker, Spurs need backup for Harry Kane, Leicester will look for quality and Man City can always spend big. There's plenty of legs in the title race and while that's a possibility, teams will try to influence it with their chequebooks.

European places
It's not over for the likes of Liverpool, Everton or even Chelsea, so there's European football to play for right down to the bottom third of the league. The Europa League had been a bit of a poisoned chalice in recent seasons but I think that Tottenham this year have shown it doesn't have to be. Teams will always prefer the Champions League but the Europa League can be a money-spinner, a chance to use the squad and an opportunity to blood youngsters. Teams will spend to get there, but not excessively.

Relegation
The relegation battle will be the fiercest ever, with the money at stake. Consequently the money spend will hit a new high, in my opinion. The following teams could still go down


Aston Villa
Sunderland
Newcastle United
Norwich City
Swansea City
Bournemouth
And even Chelsea

The activity could be intense because all of these teams have some major flaws that need to be addressed. Sunderland need a new defence (and Newcastle need help in this area too) whilst Bournemouth have lost some of their major attacking players to long-term injuries. You have to speculate to accumulate.

Twists and turns at the bottom of the table this week - who will go down?

There were some interesting twists and turns at the bottom end of the Premier League this weekend. With Manchester City and Arsenal (and possibly Leicester City tonight) swapping the lead there seems to be more definitive action in the relegation battle. Let's have a look at how the teams fighting relegation are looking going into the Christmas period-

Aston Villa look absolutely doomed. If 40 points is the magic figure the they still need 34. An almost impossible target for what looks like a very poor team. Experience at the back in Guzan, Lescott and Richards hasn't shored up the defence. The midfield is too lightweight and there's nowhere near enough goals in the team.

My team Sunderland also look in trouble. Their Christmas fixtures are really tough and they'll go into the new year looking for something like 1.5 points per game. Big Sam has been there and done it all before but this one looks tough. He keeps saying that there's goals in this team, and it agree, but conceding like they did against Watford will put them onthe back foot too often. They may just escape on the back of Watmore and Defoe.

Norwich got a draw against in-form Everton but they look a poor team. I can't see them picking up enough points to survive.

I really like the way Bournemouth play their football. Losing key players to big injuries would set anyone back but they've just kept playing their football. Pace frightens defenders and they've given Chelsea and Manchester United a beating in consecutive games. I think they'll stay up and I hope they'll stay up.

Newcastle United have had more false dawns than any other club on this list. Back to back wins don't guarantee that a corner has been turned but the outlook is better than a week ago. Goals will be their problem but they may have enough to survive.

Swansea have been dragged into it by virtue of their awful recent form. The key to their survival may be the new manager. I can't see anyone currently out of a job that is prime candidate. Gus Poyet is the bookies favourite but I've seen first hand what he can do to a team - the good and the bad.

My bottom three will be Aston Villa, Norwich City and Swansea. Watch this space.

This is the season that has seen attacking intent paying dividends - I'm sure it will continue

A topsy-turvy Premier League season has taken another turn today, and it's not even reached the 3 o'clock kick-off time on a Saturday as I write this. The fact that Spurs have just beaten Manchester City 4-1 means that Manchester United can (and probably will) go top of the league today with a win over a very poor Sunderland team. If Manchester United trip up at home then either West Ham or Leicester City could take over at the top of the table with a big enough win.

I know it's early days and you could look back at several past seasons to see an unexpected team near to the top or the bottom of the league, but this feels different. Aside from the shocking starts of Sunderland, Stoke City and Newcastle and probably Aston Villa, it seems that teams are capable of beating each other far more than ever before. Chelsea currently only have the four teams I've already mentioned below them and Manchester City have lost to West Ham and Tottenham Hotspur in successive games.

But it's the more attacking style of the lower and middle teams rather than any failings of the big teams that is making the difference this season. West Ham have gone to Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City and played without fear - coming away with three wins from three. Leicester City have found that the best way to get themselves out of a hole is to attack and try to score more goals than the opposition - coming back from 2 goals down against Villa to win and scoring four on the opening day against Sunderland are two such examples.

Swansea, Everton, Crystal Palace and Watford have all already shown much attacking intent and (so far) have shown no ideas about parking the bus, as so many average teams have done in the past.

So, this comes to my predictions of how the season will go, in terms of the top and the bottom-

Champions League places
Manchester City
Manchester United
Chelsea
Arsenal

The next group
Spurs
West Ham
Swansea
Leicester City

Not good enough
Liverpool
Crystal Palace
Everton
Stoke City

Survival
Watford
Bournemouth
Norwich City

Relegation
Newcastle United
Aston Villa
Sunderland

I think that this is the season that attacking play will win over defensive play and that the perceived gulf between Premier League clubs and Championship clubs disappears. It's when three big clubs, in Newcastle, Sunderland and Villa, drop out of the top flight. Years of clinging on by their fingertips, a lack of serious investment, a failure to make their academies work and chronic mismanagement will catch up in the end. I predict that this is the year it happens.

Are Sunderland sliding down that slope again?

Fail, sack, hire, survive, repeat.

Is this the cycle that Sunderland have got themselves into with managers? It seems that way.

Since Ellis Short disposed of Martin O'Neill, we've followed that exact pattern every season and survived. The problem is that every time we survive, we're giving more weight to the theory that it's a strategy that works. From O'Neill to Paolo Di Canio, then to Gus Poyet and now in to Dick Advocaat. The club must look mad from the outside.

I looked upon Chelsea as a similar madhouse when Roman Abramovich took over and seemed to sack a manager every 12 to 18 months but they've been right up there with the most successful clubs in the country for over ten years now.

I'd say that in the same way Chelsea as a club view a trophy every season as their measure of success, Sunderland as a club view survival in the Premier League as their absolute measure of success.

So, have Sunderland been successful over the last 5 years? In their own strange way - yes!

Looking back from here at the Di Canio and Poyet reigns there were massive highs and painful lows but we survived, we constantly beat Newcastle home and away and we had that cup run and the day out at Wembley (but I haven't forgotten the 8-0 at Southampton nor the transfer failures of Di Fanti.) And I hope that I can look back upon the reign of Dick Advocaat with the same fondness. With the highs (none so far this season) the lows (already Norwich and Bournemouth stand out) and that we survive.

It gets me thinking about what constitutes success for all but the top handful of clubs. We will never be a Champions League team, we will probably never get a better shot at cup success for a long time so surviving in the league and the annual home and away double over our nearest rivals is all we have to get excited about, collectively as a club. In separation, the fans want exciting football, thrilling matches and the club to show they care every now and again; the club (the owner) wants to make more money than last year, to stay in the league and continue the TV deal.

Mike Ashley, up the road, wants to keep the income rolling in - a Premier League club that passes the survival test and makes a profit every year - is that the level of success that we should aspire to?

Big Dick Advocaat is back - where does it leave us?

The slightly surprising news yesterday that Dick Advocaat has returned as Sunderland manager caught the bookies on the hop and has earned Mrs Advocaat a nice bunch of flowers, by all accounts. It's nice to have a quality manager that knows his football, has the backing of the players, understands the club (already) and has a great rapport with the fans. But it doesn't answer the questions around the playing staff of the club. We still need an overhaul, but the stories that went with Advocaat's departure (of him telling Ellis Short that we needed to buy quality rather than quantity) and the stories that went with his return (of him being promised £50m for players) are promising signs.

Personally, I hope that the gap between him leaving and re-signing was because of negotiations over the transfer policy rather than misgivings from his wife. I suppose we'll never know.

I've already looked at what I think should be potential transfer targets in a previous blog-

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The exception to the players I had identified would probably be Keiran Trippier. I stated that I thought he should be looked at as a new right-back based in the link to Sean Dyche, who was the favourite to take over as manager at the time. Rumours have linked us with Sam Byram from Leeds as a potential new right-back and, although I haven't seen him play, he is highly regarded.

There should now be a renewed feeling of optimism at the Stadium of Light and with the right signings (over to you, Lee Congerton) we can look forward to moving away from a relegation battle next season - but I think that at the same time every year.

The fact that Advocaat has signed a one-year deal means that we have to start work on his replacement straight away. Bringing in a Kevin Phillips now as his number 2, or promoting Paul Bracewell at the end of the season are better options than going into this blindly and looking for a new manager next June rather than this. I hope that the club sees sense in this and takes steps right now to ensure continuity at the end of the upcoming season.

Who will go down? Hull City or Newcastle United?

Its the last day of the Premier League tomorrow and with most things sorted out near the top of the table, the focus turns to relegation.

It's two down, and one of the remaining two to go. So who will it be? Is your money in Hull City to stay up by beating Man Utd at home? Or do you think that Newcastle United can match Hull's result and stay up?

Current form would suggest that both teams lose, which would be good enough for Newcastle.

With last week's home draw with Arsenal, Manchester United will finish fourth, so they don't have a great deal to play for. I think that Fellaini's mid-season form has tailed off and LVG's reliance on Falcao and Van Persie up front leaves a forward line without pace. I've got a feeling that Hull will make a game of this, defend as if their lives depended in it and may sneak a win from a set-piece goal.

I'm not really that sure about the commitment of Sam Allardyce or a West Ham at the moment. Reports suggest that Big Sam will be out of a job by Monday and that some if the first team haven't trained this week. I think that after a rough time by Newcastle's fans and owner when he was on charge, it would please Sam to put one over the Toon and help out his mate Steve Bruce in the process.

I'm going for a Newcastle win here, because I think that West Ham have given up this season and injuries have left then with a threadbare defence.

If the scenarios above play out as I've predicted then it will be Hull City back in the Championship and Newcastle United to survive and start the rebuilding that sorely needs to happen.

Sunderland v Southampton

I went to the match in Saturday, and I thought us wait a few days for the relative euphoria to die down before giving an honest assessment of how I thought it went and what I think it means for the rest of the season.

The build up

I wasn't going to go. I'd looked at the idea earlier in the week and decided against it. Then in Friday night I started to think that perhaps I wouldn't have many opportunities to see us in the Premier League for a while and perhaps I should go. I looked on Stub Hub and there was a ticket for a good seat - 15 rows back, half way line opposite the dugouts - for only £13. I'll have it. Still slept in it and waited until Saturday morning to buy.

There were problems on the Metro so it seemed to take forever to get there, but there was a positive atmosphere in and around the stadium. Collected my ticket, bought a programme, had a wee, got a cup of tea and now I'm ready for the contest to begin.

Danny Graham is starting, Coated preferred to Vergini and Johnson back on the bench.

The match

Overall I think we were second best. I've watched us too many times this season where we stand off the opposition and give them time to pick a pass in our own half. The best defensive display I've seen this season is where we got into the faces of Chelsea - one of only two teams this season so far to have kept a clean sheet against them. I know it takes a lot of effort and concentration to produce a display like that week after week. And we probably need a bigger and deeper squad than we have to produce it. It worried me on Saturday 11 v 11 and even worried me after the sending off. It's all well and good having a set, structured "two lines of four" to prepare for the oncoming attack, but unless there is some pressure on the ball, this tactic will fail.

The effort levels looked much better than in previous games this season - and better than our rivals in black and white up the road.

Seb Larsson showed he's a class act and seems to care about the club. His effort and enthusiasm is contagious and he always seems to get the best out of his midfield colleagues. Danny Graham ran his heart out for the cause and was rewarded with a whack in the face, the penalty award and man of the match. The enigma that is Connor Whickham continues. If it wasn't for a fan about 10 rows to the right of me keeping him in check, he probably wouldn't have tracked Nathaniel Clyne back as much as he should. He can run with the ball and beat men regularly but when he gets to the edge of the box and needs to make a decision he falters.

The run-in

The question is "can we stay up?"

I think that the answer is "no." But I'm not worried. There seems to be a core of players at the club that don't care about the club and are only in it for the money. Relegation will, hopefully, clear these out of the club and we can start afresh, a little like the way Southampton have done.

Dick Advocaat - firefighter or costly mistake?

Sunderland have replaced their young coach Gus Poyet who masterminded last season's great escape, not to mention the cup final. The replacement? Dick Advocaat, who is described as a firefighter to ensure the club's safety and has joined in a contract to the end of the season.

With no track record in English football, it reminds me of Fulham's ill-fated move for Felix Magath last season. Magath was also labelled a firefighter and came with the reputation of a man that had never been relegated.

On the us side, I read that Advocaat has a reputation of discipline and that's something that this current group of Sunderland  players sorely need. This set of players have seen off several managwrs over the last few years and have a reputation for drinking, late nights, poor training and a negative collective response to authority.

As a fan, this is the first time in my life where I'm not fearful of relegation for my team. I think that a drop into the Championship will see us shake off the players who don't care about the club and the fans. There appears to be a core of players that take their paycheck and offer the bare minimum in terms of effort and commitment. Poyet spoke about the times where the team and the fans fed off each other and inspired each other. This was evident in the cup run and the escape act last season but was lacking for almost all of this.

Hearing of players drinking into the night, poor training, being banned from pubs because of the trouble they cause, damaging propert, posing in front of new cars as the team go into freefall and attested over sexual contact with a minor only serve to infuriate the loyal following that expert wholehearted commitment and will be following the club years after these players have moved away.

After the Advocaat reign, whether we survive relegation or not, I'd look at taking Kevin Phillips from his coaching role at Leicester City. His standing with the fans and his obvious passion for the club will sit perfectly with the fans that have had to ensure the madness of Di Canio and the direct criticism from Poyet.  For me, he always showed a good understanding of the game and would be a great fit.

How can so many managers 'lose the dressing room?'

Its just after half time, on Saturday 14th March 2015 and Sunderland are 0-4 down at home to Aston Villa, who are in the bottom three. Gus Poyet lost the majority of the fans with an attack on them earlier in the year, and now appears to have list the dressing room.

Yet another Sunderland manager faces the sack after finding that the team don't buy into his ideas and don't seem remotely interested in the pitch. The club look destined for relegation to the Chsmpionship, again. I haven't forgotten that the situation 12 months ago was far, far worse and they survived but lightning won't strike twice.

It's the fact that the team don't appear to have bought into Poyet's philosophy, possibly brought about by following the philosophy all season and getting previous little out of it. The style of play that he wants to put forward is possession over everything else. If points were awarded for possession statistics then Sunderland would be safe already. The real issue here is the fact that, the season after the players revolted against Paolo Di Canio, the players are not performing for Gus Poyet. The effort and concentration levels have been dire, and this is summed up by the fact that Seb Larsson didn't arrive in the pitch until 3 minutes into the second half - farcical.

Rumours have circulated about a large number of the Sunderland squad that are heavy drinkers and poor trainers. Add to this the recent run ins with the law of Nicklas Bendtner, Titus Bramble, Connor Wickham and Adam Johnson and Poyet's comments last year about a rotten core at the club come into more focus-

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2603755/Gus-Poyet-hints-rotten-core-Sunderland-boss-refuses-rule-leaving-Black-Cats.html

I'm not sure who would want the job, and anyone who takes it would probably want to conduct a complete overhaul of the playing squad to root out this rogue element. I can't think of many first team players that is want to keep, and Ellis Short will have to dig deep again to help the club start again.