Who will be the big movers in the January transfer window?

We are edging towards the January transfer window and clubs will have already set budgets, discussed targets and made init enquiries about how they wish to recruit. With a few "big" clubs underachieving and untold riches available for staying in the Premier League, I expect a considerable amount of money to be spent. Here I take a look at the major recruiters in January and where I expect them to splash the cash.

Chelsea

The champions have has a dreadful start to the season, and Jose Mourinho is no stranger to spending his club owners money. They have looked weak in defence and long-term replacements for John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic are needed. With Diego Costa looking injury-prone and neither Loic Remy nor Radamel Falcao cutting the mustard I can see a move for a striker - especially of they can offload Falcao back to Monaco.

Newcastle

Although Steve McClaren has stated that he's happy with the current squad, the loss of Tim Krul is a massive blow. A quality keeper is worth 10 points per season, and this could be the difference between survival and relegation this year. I'd expect them to look for a short-term option, someone like Victor Valdes, as Krul will be number one choice again when he's fit.

Sunderland

After another terrible start to a season and another managerial change I would expect some Big Sam wheeling and dealing in the transfer window. There will undoubtedly by some players leaving and others coming in, but the true nature of who comes in is dependent on who leaves. Expect some of the older players such as Wes Brown and Jermain Defoe to leave and some defenders to come in.

Aston Villa

Another big club with a new manager and an awful season to date. Villa haven't spent much for a long time now and, like Sunderland, I can't see loads of players coming in unless loads of players leave. But they have to improve immediately if they are to have any hope of statyng up.

These won't be the only teams that need strengthening in January but are the ones that stand out to me as the most likely at the moment. But all it takes is an injury for a team to suddenly see a gaping hole where that they think needs filling with an expensive player.

Watch this space!

Deadline day approaches - what does it say about the fans?

I blogged much earlier in the Summer and said that it was the start of the silly season. As the last season closed and teams were deciding what players they would discard and where the holes were in their squad, it felt like the silly season. As 1st July came around and clubs could officially announce their new signings, it felt sillier. I have no word to describe the period that's about to arrive - transfer deadline day. The business that's done in the last day, as clubs engage in brinksmanship - whoever blinks first loses money - is amazing.

In a world where players have no concept of the type of salary that the fans live on, they and their agents fight over the extra few grand a week or a better goal bonus that eventually makes little difference to their existence. Clubs that squander millions of players that turn out to be flops, squabble with other clubs about the different valuations each carry for a player. The selling club overvalues heavily, the buying club undervalues heavily and the player can get left in the middle. Where else would you force someone who doesn't want to work for you to stay and "become part of out future" or "stay and fight for your place." Not that the players are slaves to the clubs - far from it.

So we head towards the final day and Sky Sports are already hyping it up, with talk of world record, British record and club record transfers. With some heavy spending by the two Manchester clubs, Chelsea and possibly a big deal to come from

Arsenal the spending this Summer may top £1 billion. Is this the way that the world wants to spend it's money?

But after all that we, the fans, love it. We love the drama of the transfer window, the speculation about who we are going to buy, who might be in for one of our players or who we might have just missed out on. The figures seem to pass over out heads. A player that we have booed relentlessly when they played for another team is suddenly one of our heroes and the short sales go through the roof. The word that is often attached to football fans is "fickle" but I see it as something different to that altogether.

At any club, the average time a player or a manager stays there is probably now down to under 3 years. A fan is there for life, and has to adapt to the changes in chairman, director of football, manager and players. The fans will often support the club that their father and grandfather and so on supported. The lineage often goes back as far as the club itself. This is the opposite of fickle - this is long-term dedication from people that work hard all week to put their hand in their pocket for a few goals, a pie and a pint.

As the silly season gets to it's silliest point, I ask the clubs to keep their fans dreams alive. It's often these dreams that get us through the rest of our lives.

3 weeks break leads me to expand the blog

I've now returned from three weeks holiday. A three week break brings lots of thinking time but the return to reality and activity is tougher than I remember.

I've kept physically active whilst away, with a gym and swimming pool on the complex I've been staying on. But a lot of time on the road, by the pool, in the gym and on the beach gives you plenty of time to think about what you are doing and where you want to start going next with everything you do.

I think that it is good (and it was good) to have a period of reflection and contemplation. It gives you a chance to determine whether you think that you're on the right track and to plot the way forward without the everyday distractions of work life. It also enables a little "blue sky thinking" as there exposure to a different routine and a different culture can have you thinking about things in different ways. I have looked at the direction I'm heading in and I broadly think that it's where I want to be going.

It's now thinking about heading out of the break and back into my life that's occupying my mind. I landed and got home in Sunday evening and it was back to work at 7.30am on Monday, so there was no real transition to be had. It was a case of holiday mode as is went to bed and work mode when I got up the next morning. It was just the way it had to be with three weeks off - there was no spare time to be had! So it was straight back into it, which can sometimes be the best way to get on, although I don't really feel like that the the moment! I can just about see the wood from the trees at work now, after a few days of catching up. I just wish I could say the same about everything else I do.

I've looked at my blogs and I can see that there is definitely a Sunderland bias developing in terms of content. The plight of the club this Summer has occupied my mind and has obviously occupied my blog as well. My resolution is to look at the wider football situation and produce more (probably slightly shorter) blogs about the events of football as they occur.

Where have these release clauses appeared from?

Another transfer looks close to completion in the early part of next week as it's reported that Liverpool have met the release clause in Christian Benteke's contract. The clause is reported to be £32.5 million.

It's got me thinking about these release clauses and what they say about modern football.

In the example of Christian Benteke I'll have a look at what I think might have happened. Benteke was bought for £7m from Genk in August 2012 at the age of 22. Villa spent a lot of money in a player they saw as having huge potential and fitting into their style of play. The player probably saw Aston Villa as a stepping stone and either during the initial negotiations or a new contract, wanted a clause in his contract allowing this to happen. Villa wanted this to be a high figure and at the time probably thought that £32.5m for a player they bought for only £7m was probably good business. Since then, Benteke became the driving force at the club - going a long way towards keeping them up ever since signing. The club now feel quite reluctant to see one of their leaders leave, especially one so loved by their fans. So they dig their heels in and say to any suitor - "There's the release clause. If you want the player then that's what you have to pay." Liverpool are flush with the cash from selling Raheem Sterling and still haven't replaced the goals that Luis Suarez gave them. They have no choice but to pay.

I don't remember release clauses mentioned in transfer negotiations when I was a kid. But there wasn't anywhere near as much money in the game as there is nowadays.

In my eyes, the phenomenon started about ten years ago with the release clause quotes in the contracts of the players of Spanish clubs. But these don't seem to work in the same way. We're always hearing release clauses quoted of €50m to €150m but players no exchanging hands for those prices. And then there was the stand-off between Liverpool and Arsenal over the transfer of Luis Suarez. Only after Suarez had reconciled himself with Liverpool, did they reveal that there was a release clause but they decided to ignore it.

So, do they have a future in the game. I'd like to see them used in the way that Aston Villa, Christian Benteke and Liverpool have used them. Benteke gets his chance in a bigger league, Aston Villa get well rewarded for nurturing his talent and turning him into a player that the big clubs cover and Liverpool get a proven Premier League performer at a definite price.

I'm worried that Sunderland are getting left behind

It's that time of the year, as teams pout their squads together fore the upcoming season. Because of the Euros next summer, the Premier League starts really early this year, with the first round of matches starting on 8th August. This means that having your squad together early and getting them settled into a team plan is vital.

From Sunderland's point of view, the season that started with Paolo Di Canio as manager and we lost so many early games started the snowball effect that only a change of manager and an unbelievable run from Gus Poyet's men got us out of.

The club have stated that they want to move away from perennial relegation fights and towards the top 10. Dick Advocaat stated at the end of the season, when he hadn't decided whether he was staying or not, that we needed 4 or 5 quality signings to take us up the league and away from the bottom end. And as a fan I agree. Looking at the transfer business that teams with similar ambitions have conducted, I'm starting to worry about what we are doing and where we are being left behind. Sebastian Coates and Adam Matthews are good additions in my opinionj, but we need to be looking for another cetnre-back, a left midfielder/winger, a striker and probably another central midfielder. Let's have a look at what some of the other team have done so far this Summer-

Crystal Palace have signed Yohan Cabaye, which is a statement of major intent for the club.He is a talented player and will dictate the tempo of their game. Although he's never a player that we would have gone for, someone of his quality in central midfield would be a major boost to our club. I think that Jack Rodwell was perceived to be that type of player but injury and poor form haven't allowed him to show it.

Two signings for West Ham stand out so far, and that's Angelo Ogbonna from Juventus and Dimitri Payet from Marseille. Both look like they are quality players with experience of European competition. And both are players that look to have been targeted as part of the planning of the club - they've bought players where they need to strengthen. We, however are linked with Stewart Downing, who is being shifted on for Payet. It shows a lack of ambition and doesn't go any way to solving the problem we have with pace in our side.

Stoke City have made some very good signings and have pre-empted the loss of Asmir Begovic by promoting Jack Butland and buying Shay Given. Marco van Ginkel looks to be a promising prospect and the imminent arrival of Glen Johnson will bring in more experience. The return from injury of Bojan will be a massive boost to the club and will feel like a new signing.

Newcastle have been fairly quiet as well but have announced today that they've signed Georginio Wijnaldum, who looks a very good player and is one that we've been linked to. I think that Georginio Wijnaldum would be a massive step up from playing Connor Whickham on the left and it's a real shame that we've missed out on him - if indeed we were ever in for him.

Another team that have been quite busy is Aston Villa. They've spent the Fabian Delph money on Senegalese midfielder Idrissa Gueye, got defender Micah Richards on a free transfer and converted Scott Sinclair's loan from Manchester City into a permanent deal. These all represent good value and Richards signing will probably gall Sunderland fans the most as he looked all set to join us last Summer before Gus Poyet's intervention. Again, the club have looked at where they need players and acted swiftly to get their targets.

Swansea have added Ghanaian forward Andre Ayew on a free transfer from Marseille in their move that has caught the eye the most, for me. This player is quality and adds pace to their counter-attacking style. He'll take some of the pressure off Bafetimbi Gomis after the departure of Wilfried Bony.

I know that there are always huge amounts of rumours at this time of year, and I don't expect (and I don't want) us to buy every player that we're linked with but so many that we're linked with look like a good match and then we find that they've signed somewhere else.

I'd like the squad out together before the first game and us to move forward at the start of the season by picking up the points that start to move us away from the likes of the promoted clubs, West Brom and Leicester, who I think are the candidates apart from us to be struggling. To do this, we need to replace the creaking old-timers in central defence, provide cover for Patrick van Aanholt at left-back, sort out the slow uninventive options at left attacking midfield and free up Defoe and a new strike partner to score goals. No small order - especially when there's only 27 days until the season starts.

 

Silly season

We're in the off season and fast approaching the opening of the transfer window. With the season seemingly starting earlier every year (8th August is the first round of Premier League fixtures this time) and ore-season tours to all parts of the globe, my view is that teams should get their business done early.

It's surprising to me how long it takes to pull a transfer together. If you take the point in time that a rumour first surfaces as the starting point, then we often see the process take over a month to come to fruition. Take my own club Sunderland and their reported pursuit if Carl Jenkinson. Reports linking us to a right back have gone in every Summer and January for years. This time, the interest in Jenkinson started about 3 weeks ago, according to reports. A loan fee of £1.5million has been widely reported, as has interest from West Ham and Southampton. Now the Saints bought a new right back yesterday so may nick longer be after Jenkinson. From my understanding of business, the situation from the outside looks like the player has a choice of clubs, probably dependent on speaking to the managers and then a medical and a deal can be done. But these things tend to drag out for weeks.

Deadline day seems to be the only thing that concentrates the minds of all the respective parties to get the deal done.

The rumours this season, as always, rest around the players from clubs just outside of the top teams who had a great season last year. Nathaniel Clyne is highly sought after, and Southampton's new right back sends hints that he's about to leave. Liverpool are reported to be front of the queue, but Manchester United could do with a quality right back.

The Danny Ings saga has finished with Liverpool beating off reported competition from Real Sociedad, Bayern Munich and a host of English clubs.

Charlie Austin is another English goalscorer who will be in demand all over the Premier League. Newcastle and West Ham needs goals and would ha e the resources for the transfer fee and his wages.

We shall see.